MARKET INTELLIGENCE — PRICING & CAPACITY
Prices and capacity get set by gut feel under time pressure.
Price gets decided on gut feel under time pressure, and capacity gets decided too late to act on. Neither is really a knowledge problem — it is arithmetic while the phone is ringing. This shows the break-even and the working, so a person can accept it, override it, or throw it out.
Free · 20 minutes · no commitment
WHO THIS IS FOR
Operators making price calls on instinct because the maths takes longer than the customer will wait.
THE PROBLEM
Both decisions are asymmetric, too. Price too low and you carry it for the length of the contract; commit capacity too early and you pay for it whether the work arrives or not. Under pressure people take the option that feels safe, which across a year is usually the expensive one.
WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE
Market intelligence
Broker on hold: Mississauga to Montréal, Thursday
COST BASE FROM QUICKBOOKS, SEPTEMBER CLOSE · LANE RATES 1:52 PM
The working
Loaded
- Basis
- 550 km at your $1.90 a km
- Amount
- $1,045
Empty to the shipper
- Basis
- 40 km from your Milton yard
- Amount
- $76
Break-even
- Basis
- Assumes a reload out of Montréal, as on 9 of your last 10 runs there
- Amount
- $1,121
Lane median today
- Basis
- 31 loads on your rate feed this week
- Amount
- $1,460
| Item | Basis | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Loaded | 550 km at your $1.90 a km | $1,045 |
| Empty to the shipper | 40 km from your Milton yard | $76 |
| Break-even | Assumes a reload out of Montréal, as on 9 of your last 10 runs there | $1,121 |
| Lane median today | 31 loads on your rate feed this week | $1,460 |
Recommended · waiting on you
$1,440
Range $1,390 to $1,500. Expected contribution $319, range $269 to $379.
You quote it, change it or turn the load down, and each choice is logged with its reason. No price changes by itself, and that is not a setting.
Capacity, Thursdays to Montréal
Add a second Thursday truck from October 22
Loads offered on this lane are up 30% in two weeks, and 3 were turned away last Thursday. A truck and a driver with the hours are both free from that date.
Waiting on youAdd it this Thursday
No truck is free until unit 14 is back from its annual inspection on October 16.
Held back
CAPACITY IS ONLY RECOMMENDED WHEN THERE IS A TRUCK AND A DRIVER TO RUN IT
Recommended, done, what happened
Oct 1
- Load
- Brampton → Québec City
- Recommended
- Decline the $1,500 offer
- Done
- Declined
- What happened
- Broker came back at $1,720 the next day. Booked, $162 contribution
Sep 29
- Load
- Milton → Ottawa
- Recommended
- $1,020
- Done
- $960 · Sam: steady customer
- What happened
- Booked, $105 contribution
Sep 24
- Load
- Mississauga → Montréal
- Recommended
- $1,400
- Done
- $1,400
- What happened
- Booked, $279 contribution
| Date | Load | Recommended | Done | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | Brampton → Québec City | Decline the $1,500 offer | Declined | Broker came back at $1,720 the next day. Booked, $162 contribution |
| Sep 29 | Milton → Ottawa | $1,020 | $960 · Sam: steady customer | Booked, $105 contribution |
| Sep 24 | Mississauga → Montréal | $1,400 | $1,400 | Booked, $279 contribution |
What you get.
- Price recommendations with break-even and expected contribution shown, not just a figure.
- Capacity recommendations gated on whether you could actually execute them.
- A confidence range on every estimate. Never a single number presented as certainty.
- An audit trail of what was recommended, what was done, and what happened next.
How it works.
Priced against the scope, after a Diagnostic that is small on purpose. The shape of the work we can tell you now.
- THE SHAPE
- Built, then run. The recommendations improve as your overrides accumulate.
- WHAT WE NEED FROM YOU
- Your real cost base. Without it the arithmetic is decoration.
- WHAT YOU KEEP
- The model, its assumptions, and the full decision history.
What this does not include.
Published because you should know before the call, not after the invoice.
- Automatic price changes. Every recommendation waits on a human decision, and that boundary is not configurable.
- Recommendations you could not lawfully or practically act on.
QUESTIONS
Will it change our prices by itself?
No. It recommends and shows the working; a person decides. That line is deliberate, and we will not move it for convenience.
What if we disagree with it?
You override, and the override is recorded with its reason. Those overrides turn out to be among the most useful data the system holds.
MORE UNDER MARKET INTELLIGENCE
WHERE THIS APPLIES
The industries whose page names Market Intelligence as one of the places we would start. Each one is written for that trade, with its own numbers.
Bring us one bad week.
Book a pilot call. Tell us where the week goes wrong, and we’ll tell you what an Operations Diagnostic would map and measure.
The first paid step has a clear scope and an end date, and the pilot after it is one workflow — not a platform, and not an open-ended retainer.
Free · 20 minutes · no commitment